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	<title>datadoodle &#187; metric</title>
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		<title>Mapping the many faces of &#8220;retention&#8221;</title>
		<link>http://datadoodle.com/2010/01/15/mapping-the-many-faces-of-retention/</link>
		<comments>http://datadoodle.com/2010/01/15/mapping-the-many-faces-of-retention/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 15 Jan 2010 17:30:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Ted Cuzzillo</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[creative analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[customers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[games]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[games site]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ken Rudin]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[LucidEra]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[metric]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[metrics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[retention curve]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Zynga]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://datadoodle.com/?p=1124</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Everybody knows what &#8220;retention&#8221; means until they have to design a metric. Ken Rudin, once of LucidEra and now general manager of analytics at the games site Zynga, thought that he and his team could &#8220;put something together&#8221; quickly &#8212; but it actually took &#8220;four solid weeks of discussion and debate.&#8221; About 50 million people [...]]]></description>
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Everybody knows what &#8220;retention&#8221; means until they have to design a metric. Ken Rudin, once of LucidEra and now general manager of analytics at the games site Zynga, thought that he and his team could &#8220;put something together&#8221; quickly &mdash; but it actually took &#8220;four solid weeks of discussion and debate.&#8221;
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<p>
About 50 million people play <a href="http://www.zynga.com/">Zynga</a> games every day. It&#8217;s the leading online social gaming platform, according to Ken, and it&#8217;s grown from zero in 2007 to revenues of &#8220;a few&#8221; hundred million dollars annual revenue. Every day, the company captures 20 to 30 billion records of data, and Ken and his team use that data to improve revenue, viral marketing &mdash; and customer retention.
</p>
<p>
Zynga players play free. The revenue comes in a few dollars at a time for &#8220;virtual goods.&#8221; In the popular game FarmVille, for example, a player might get tired of the old-fashioned plow. The tractor upgrade costs $2.
</p>
<p>
&#8220;There are tons of different ways you can think about retention,&#8221; he laughs, &#8220;and which one should we use?&#8221;
</p>
<p>
How do you know when a customer has left? &#8220;Unless we don&#8217;t get a note saying, &#8216;Hi, we&#8217;re no longer playing,&#8217; how do we know?&#8221;
</p>
<p>
Of course, no player&#8217;s going to make it that easy, so how long should Zynga wait before considering the player gone? A week? A man could have dropped his virtual pitchfork for a real vacation &mdash; or he could have plowed the last row.
</p>
<p>
Ken dealt with analytics all the time at LucidEra, but games were new to him. He&#8217;s learned a few things.
</p>
<p>
&#8220;It turns out, as you might imagine, that it depends on the game,&#8221; he says. The average simulation-game player tends to visit frequently, for example. Poker players, though, are much more likely to come back after, say, a three-month gap.
</p>
<p>
The retention curve also varies by the length of each player&#8217;s tenure. A new player who stays away 30 days is much less likely to return than a player who&#8217;s been at Zynga for years. Ken now puts users in three basic tenure buckets: &#8220;new,&#8221; &#8220;mature,&#8221; and &#8220;elder.&#8221;
</p>
<p>
Whatever question you try to answer, it has to be actionable. &#8220;There are metrics, and there are metrics that matter,&#8221; he says. If volume plunges, were the missing players mostly new ones? If so, it could indicate frustration; perhaps the games need better tutorials or less functionality at the beginning. Or were most of the missing the long-term customers? If so, perhaps the games haven&#8217;t offered enough challenge.
</p>
<p>
Ken expects growth when the economy improves. &#8220;When we look at what happens over holidays, such as July Fourth and Thanksgiving, usage really drops. Then it picks up as people go back to work,&#8221; he says. &#8220;[The games] are part of their routine. On vacation, players break their routines. They sleep late and spend more time with family. They don&#8217;t play the game.&#8221;
</p>
<p>
&#8220;It&#8217;s fascinating,&#8221; says Ken. &#8220;In analytics, so much of the problem is figuring out what the question really is.&#8221;
</p>
<p>
I think he means that it&#8217;s a great game.</p>
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